Sometimes It Is Better to Do Nothing: A New Argument for Causal Decision Theory

It is often thought that the main significant difference between evidential decision theory and causal they recommend different acts in Newcomb-style examples (broadly construed) where states are correlated peculiar ways. However, this paper presents a class of non-Newcombian cannot adequately model whereas can. Briefly, involve situations it clearly best to perform an act will not influence desired outcome. On theory—but theory—this situation turns out be impossible: agent does think outcome never optimal. Typically, sophisticated versions emulate theoretic reasoning by (implicitly) conditioning on confounders, but kind example considered here, trick work. The upshot there more than has so far been appreciated.